Keynote Address by Mr Heng Swee Keat, Chairman, National Research Foundation, at the IVAS-IVSC Business Valuation Conference 2026

Minister Indranee Rajah, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office and Second Minister for Finance and National Development,
Mrs Lim Hwee Hua, Chair of the Board of Trustees, International Valuation Standards Council,
Mr Lie Kok Keong, Council Chairperson, Institute of Valuers and Appraisers Singapore,
Mrs Chia-Tern Huey Min, Chief Executive, Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority,
Ms Cindy Tan, President, CFA Society Singapore,

Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, 

Introduction

1.          Good morning. I am pleased to join you at the 10^th IVAS-IVSC Business Valuation Conference. 

2.          Congratulations to IVAS and IVSC on reaching this milestone. I am also glad that CFA Society Singapore has come on board as a conference partner for the first time.

3.          Across my years in public service, finance and research and innovation, I have encountered a recurring challenge: how do we make good decisions today when the future is inherently uncertain?

4.          This question is also central to valuation. A valuation is more than a calculation. It brings together evidence, assumptions about the future and professional judgement to arrive at a reasoned assessment of value.  And this matters well beyond an individual transaction. Credible valuations help investors make informed decisions, businesses access capital, and markets function with greater confidence. As we navigate new realities in corporate markets, the ability to distinguish enduring value from temporary market sentiment becomes even more important.

5.          Let me share 3 reflections from my experience: 

• First, why uncertainty makes long-term thinking more important;

• Second, why disciplined capital allocation matters; and

• Third, how we can better understand and realise future economic value. 

Navigating Global Uncertainty Requires Long-Term Thinking

6.          For a small and open economy like Singapore’s, developments beyond our shores have always mattered. 

7.          What is different today is the speed at which circumstances and assumptions can change. Supply chains are being reorganised. Access to markets and technologies can shift. Business models that appeared resilient only a few years ago may come under new pressure. 

8.          In particular, technological advances, certainly AI and quantum computing, but not just these, but also biotech, renewable energies and many other fields are advancing rapidly.  

9.          Faced with uncertainty, there is a natural tendency to focus on what is immediately in front of us: the latest market movement, the next set of results, or the risks closest at hand. It’s like driving – you need to focus on the traffic in front of you yet not lose your sense of direction or your destination. Yet uncertainty makes long-term thinking more important, not less. 

10.          Long-term thinking does not mean waiting for conditions to become clearer before acting. Nor does it mean paying less attention to immediate needs. It means addressing the present while remaining mindful of what our decisions may mean for the future. 

11.          We saw this during the COVID-19 pandemic. Singapore had to respond decisively to protect lives and livelihoods. At the same time, we had to preserve our capacity to recover, re-build and meet future needs. 

12.          One lesson I took from that experience is that resilience cannot be built only when a crisis arrives. The choices we make over time determine the room we have to respond when circumstances become difficult. 

13.          I also saw the importance of this during my years at the Monetary Authority of Singapore, including the Global Financial Crisis. 

14.          One lesson from the periods of financial stress is that market prices and underlying economic value do not always move together. When confidence weakens and liquidity dries up, prices can change sharply, sometimes more quickly than the fundamentals of a business. 

15.          But we must also guard against the opposite mistake of assuming that every fall in price is temporary, or that yesterday’s valuations will necessarily be restored. A crisis can reveal weaknesses in business models, financing structures and assumptions that had previously been overlooked.   Some asset values can be permanently impaired because the fundamentals have been changed. 

16.          The challenge is therefore to distinguish between temporary market dislocations and more fundamental changes in value. This requires sound analysis, a careful appreciation of risk and the discipline to question our assumptions, especially when markets are moving rapidly. 

17.          The circumstances facing a government, an enterprise or an investor are different. But the underlying question is not entirely dissimilar: how do we respond to immediate pressures without losing sight of the capabilities and value that take time to build? 

18.          Sometimes this means preserving options. Sometimes it means continuing to invest through uncertainty. And sometimes it means recognising that decisions which appear costly in the short term can build capabilities and resilience that become valuable over a much longer period. 

19.          This is where judgement matters. Data can tell us much about what has happened. Models can help us examine what might happen. But decisions still have to be made without perfect knowledge of the future. 

20.          In short, the future is inherently uncertain. We cannot foretell the future accurately.  The immediate situation may be difficult and volatile, but we must continue to focus on the long term.

Disciplined Capital Allocation Is Essential to Sustainable Value Creation

21.          My second reflection is on capital allocation. 

22.          Capital is finite. Whether we are considering public resources, an institutional portfolio or investment in a growing enterprise, every allocation involves choices. The context may differ, but some of the underlying disciplines are similar. 

23.          In public finance, the question is rarely only about whether  an initiative is itself worthwhile. There are other competing claims on finite resources and trade-offs to be considered, and we have to consider not just what is needed today but what may be needed in the future. 

24.          Similarly, for long -term investment, we must consider risk, return and time horizon. An attractive proposition today may not necessarily create sustainable value over time. Conversely, uncertainty in the present does not necessarily diminish the underlying potential of a sound business. 

25.          Taking a long view therefore requires discipline. It means looking beyond the immediate proposition to understand what drives value, what could undermine it, and whether the value can endure as circumstances change. 

26.          Business valuation requires us to form a view about the future using the information available today. This is difficult even in relatively stable conditions. It becomes more challenging when markets, technologies and business models are changing quickly. 

27.          This can be even harder in private markets, where transactions are less frequent and information may be less complete. Assumptions about liquidity, risks, financing conditions and future performance can have significant bearing on an assessment. A good valuation cannot remove uncertainty, but it can make the assumptions behind an assessment clearer, more transparent and defensible, so that they can be examined and tested. An investor then considers those assumptions from a different perspective: the risks involved, the potential return and the other potential investments for that capital. 

28.          These are different roles but there is a common discipline of asking what underpins value and how durable that value might be. The quality of these decisions matters beyond an individual transaction because capital allocation ultimately influences which businesses develop, which ideas receive support, and which capabilities are built for the future. 

29.          In short, my second reflection is that a disciplined approach to capital allocation, be it for the public or private sector, is essential to creating sustainable value, for the country, for the enterprises, and for workers. 

From Research Potential to Economic Value

30.          My third reflection is about how we can create future value.  This is a question we focus on in allocating our research budget at the National Research Foundation.  In our Research, Innovation and Enterprise 2030 Plan, or RIE2030, Singapore’s plan for 2026 to 2030, the  theme is “Realising Value, Positioning for the Long Term”. 

31.          Research is inherently uncertain. It can take many years before its potential is realised. Not every project will succeed. Sometimes the eventual application may also be quite different from what researchers first envisaged. Yet if we waited until the value of every research investment was certain, we would never invest early enough to develop many of the capabilities and technologies that we may need in the future. 

32.          At the same time, taking a long-term view does not mean being less disciplined about how we invest. We still need evidence, milestones, and the willingness to learn and adjust along the way.  And we must be careful about the appropriate time frame to assess results. About one third of our research budget support our universities in basic research, which may take decades before we see their use. 

33.          This is the approach we are taking in RIE2030. The Government will invest $37 billion over the next five years, or about 1% of GDP, consistently through good times and bad. But we are also more deliberate about outcomes. The new large-scale RIE Flagships and Grand Challenges will be actively managed, with clear goals and pathways to realise value, and a significant portion of funds is kept in reserve as “White Space” so that we can respond to new opportunities as they emerge.

34.          This raises an interesting challenge for the valuation profession. 

35.          In the traditional economy, much of an enterprise’s value could be linked to physical assets, production capacity, or an established record of earnings. In today’s knowledge and innovation driven economy, an increasing share of value may lie in less tangible assets: intellectual property, proprietary technologies, data, organisational capabilities and the ability to innovate. 

36.          These are important sources of competitive advantage. But they are also difficult to assess. A promising technology may never find a viable market. A valuable innovation may not translate into a profitable business. And an enterprise with substantial technological potential may still face significant challenges in commercialising and scaling its ideas. Deep tech start-ups, which RIE2030 aims to nurture, are a good example. They are grounded in advances from R&D, and are characterised by higher technological complexity, longer development timelines, more complex regulatory and market-entry pathways, and greater capital intensity. 

37.          Another example is artificial intelligence, which illustrates both the opportunities and challenges facing the valuation profession. AI is creating new sources of value and changing how businesses compete. At the same time, it offers new tools to analyse increasingly complex information. But more sophisticated tools do not eliminate the need for sound professional judgement. 

38.          At the National Research Foundation, we place emphasis on how research can be translated into economic and societal impact. Research expands the frontier of what is possible but realising that potential requires much more: entrepreneurship, market validation, access to capital, and the ability to execute.   

39.          RIE2030 puts this into practice. A new Research Translation Grant will help mature promising technologies from our public research institutions to the point where private investors are willing to back them, with established deep tech venture builders guiding researchers on business development. We are adding $1 billion to the Startup SG Equity scheme, including co-investment with independent, qualified investors to strengthen market discipline for early-stage start-ups. 

40.          There is also an important distinction between recognising potential and assuming that it will be realised. 

41.          Researchers create new possibilities. Entrepreneurs seek to turn them into products and services. Valuers assess what this could mean for the enterprise, and investors decide whether to commit capital. When these perspectives come together, promising ideas have a better chance of being translated into real economic outcomes. 

42.          This is where rigorous valuations can make an important contribution. By examining assumptions, assessing risks and understanding the pathways to commercialisation, valuers can help investors make more informed decisions about opportunities whose full potential has yet to be realised. As RIE2030 works to catalyse more private capital into deep tech start-ups, this contribution becomes even more important. 

43.          To me, this is an interesting connection between innovation and valuation. The question is not simply what something is worth today. It is also what could create value over time, and what has to happen for that value to be realised. That is also the spirit of RIE2030: realising value from our research, and positioning Singapore for the long term. 

Creating Value That Lasts

44.          Let me conclude by bringing these 3 reflections together. 

45.          Whether we are managing public finances, investing for the long term, supporting research and innovation, or valuing a business, we are making decisions today about outcomes whose full value may only become clear over time. We cannot remove that uncertainty, but we can make better decisions by being clear about our assumptions, examining the evidence, considering different possibilities and remaining prepared to adjust as new information emerges. 

46.          The valuation profession has an important contribution to make. As markets become more complex, and as intangible assets and new technologies account for a growing share of enterprise value, the demand for credible, rigorous and transparent valuation will only become more important. This not only calls for strong technical capabilities, but also for sound professional judgement, a willingness to question assumptions, and an appreciation of how businesses and markets are evolving. 

47.          For Singapore as an international financial centre, these professional standards also contribute to the trust and confidence on which well-functioning markets depend. 

48.          Over the past decade, IVAS and IVSC have helped advance professional standards and bring together the valuation community. I hope this conference will further strengthen the exchange of perspectives between valuation and investment management professionals and deepen our collective understanding of how value is assessed and capital is allocated. 

49.          Ultimately, sound valuation is not simply about assessing what something is worth today. It is about shaping our future, by helping us make better decisions about the capital, enterprises and capabilities. 

Conclusion

50.          I hope today’s discussions will deepen collaboration between business valuation and investment management professionals and contribute to sustainable value creation in Singapore and across our region. 

51.          Thank you, and I wish everyone a productive and engaging day ahead.